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July 24, 2008

Posted by Rob Steen on 07/24/2008

New regime on Stats Island





A fresh perspective is needed on the number-crunching in cricket © HKCA

What with the Acronym War in full flight, the game’s governance in disarray, umpire referrals being trialled, the Kolpak Era showing encouraging signs of drawing to an unlamented close and Mohammed Asif being a very silly boy indeed, it hasn’t been easy of late to focus on what really matters – runs and, um … oh yes, wickets. Unfortunately, even in the safe, profoundly apolitical arena of Stats Island, I can’t seem to get much, if any, satisfaction.

While watching Wednesday’s Pro40 game between Durham and Somerset, the thrilling sight of Steve Harmison and Liam Plunkett adding 81 for the last wicket - and only just in vain - set me wondering about the highest such stand to win a senior match. Not exactly a left-field query, one would have thought. Certainly not an unnatural one for a fully-qualified anorak.

Infuriatingly, my determined scouring of various Wisdens, Frindalls and Webbers, not to mention sundry reputable databases, all came to naught. Which merely strengthened what has long been a personal bugbear: cricket is not well-served by its statisticians. Or not as well as it might be. And definitely nowhere near as well as the Elias Sports Bureau, Bill James and other likeminded souls serve baseball, the only sport that matches cricket when it comes to being fatally smitten by numbers.

The big difference is situational statistics, which baseball uses for public consumption and cricket does not, though several counties and state sides are currently building up the sort of databases that will render that possible. Does Batsman A consistently fare differently according to the score when he takes guard? Is his temperament such that 80-5 is likely to bring more from him than 280-5? Does Bowler B perform more fruitfully according to ego, ie. whether he is given the new ball or comes on first-change? Is a string of maidens more likely to beget a wicket (a popular theory recently rubbished by hard facts)? The answer to these questions could be extremely revealing and helpful in terms of team selection, batting and bowling order, and tactical approach; they would also be fascinating for spectators and students of the game.

But, again, it is the straightforward stuff where the void gapes widest. Which Test keeper has conceded the most byes in a career? More pertinently, which one has the lowest average of byes per Test? No internet database I know of can satisfy that poser. When Graeme Smith and Neil McKenzie were threatening to bat all day against England at Lord’s earlier this month, a friend texted from the pavilion: what’s the record for the fewest runs to have been scored in a wicketless day? I rummaged and number-crunched the latest Wisden as well as a few databases for an hour and got precisely nowhere, other than to report that, had the openers remained intact until stumps, they would have set a record for Tests in England.

It is not that progress hasn’t been made. Strike-rates, for batsmen as well as bowlers, are now accorded an importance that would have been barely credible to statisticians of 30 years ago - and, given the recession in over-rates, with eminent justification. Yet something niggles: why must the denomination for batsmen be runs per 100 balls? Not least because, in the average ODI or even Test innings, 50 balls constitutes a decent sojourn. The results, 178.53 and the like, strike me as far too big and unwieldy. Why not simply make it runs per ball? A rate of 1.78 would be altogether more digestible.

There have also been some worthwhile if ultimately flawed attempts lately to rank current wicketkeepers in such a manner as to take into account the runs they contributed and those they have given away. By including dropped catches, sadly, subjectivity pollutes. One man’s miss is another’s brave try. Ugliness is firmly in the eyes of the beholder.

Only in time will these shortcomings be addressed and redressed, but the will must be there, and I don’t detect enough of that. Of more immediate concern is the need to find a way of properly measuring the effectiveness of batsmen and bowlers in 50- and 20-over cricket.

Averages have long held sway in the first-class fray, but the right and proper accent on economy and strike-rates means that runs per innings and wicket are no longer sufficient as arbiters of quality (and don’t get me started on the ludicrous homage paid to not-outs). May I therefore propose two new, reasonably comprehensible and complexity-free categories: ESR and SA - Economic Strike Rate and Strike Average.

The first of these excludes averages altogether, and instead marries bowlers' economy- and strike-rates by multiplying them. Since both economy-rate and strike-rate need to be minimised, as the following table testifies, Joel Garner’s ESR in ODIs is superior to those of Wasim Akram and Muttiah Muralitharan, the two highest wicket-takers:

ER SR ESR
Joel Garner 3.09 36.5 112.79
Muttiah Muralitharan 3.87 35.4 137.00
Wasim Akram 3.89 36.2 140.82


There is a case for dividing that final figure by the number of overs or games, the better to bring opportunity into the mix - which would only enhance Garner’s standing. That, however, would lead to a preponderance of fractions: never a good idea in terms of punter-friendliness. Baseball’s mathematical appeal doesn’t appear to have suffered unduly for the value it places on numbers to the right of the decimal point, but I still find a batting average of 0.333, for all that broadcasters enunciate it as “three-thirty-three”, a little too diminutive for complete respect.

The second category is more complex. Although I would contend that, in the context of the abbreviated formats, runs per innings is of greater significance than runs per wicket, they should form part of the equation. As, equally so, should strike-rate. The following table reflects this calculation, confining the sample to the highest ODI achievers: those with 2000 runs, who average 35 and whose acquisitions come at 70 runs per 100 balls. The results do no justice, above all, to Shahid Afridi, but then speed is nothing without direction.

Average (A) Strike Rate (SR) SA (A x SR/100)

Michael Hussey 54.92 85.63 47.03
MS Dhoni 48.00 92.18 44.25
Viv Richards 47.00 90.20 42.39
Kevin Pietersen 47.14 86.62 40.83
Zaheer Abbas 47.63 84.80 40.39
Michael Bevan 53.58 74.16 39.73
Lance Klusener 41.10 89.92 38.96
Sachin Tendulkar 44.33 85.49 37.90
Andrew Symonds 40.37 92.78 37.46
Michael Clarke 43.40 80.48 34.93

Again, you could divide the SA by the number of innings, or multiply it by the number of runs. Again, and either way, this would not be a sight for sore or even fresh eyes, much less the brain.

These figures, of course, are anything but flawless. The Economic Strike Rate does not take into account that “Big Bird” Garner was at his beak-dipping peak when there were no Powerplays, scores of 300 were immune and only a gifted/mad few dared attempt a reverse-sweep or over-the-shoulder flip, much less a switch-hit. Similarly, the Strike Average conveniently ignores the fact that batsmen score so much more rapidly now. Of the 12 men who have scored more than 1000 ODI runs at more than 90 per 100 balls, only Ian Smith, Kapil Dev and Viv Richards have not plied their trade within the past three years.

But hey, what the hell. All the evidence insists that it was easier for Don Bradman to pile up runs on 1930s pitches against 1930s fast bowling than for Victor Trumper on turn-of-the-century tracks with flimsy pads and SF Barnes to contend with. A century against the West Indies between 1976 and 1991 was worth a double against virtually any other attack ever assembled. Statistics, particularly those used to analyse sporting achievement, have always been two-dimensional at best. Nothing wrong, though, with throwing down a gauntlet.

Go to Comments

Comments

Posted by: David Barry on 07/24/2008

If you multiply the economy rate per ball and strike rate together, you get the average.

(runs/ball) * (balls/wkt) = runs/wkt

Your ESR is simply the average multiplied by 6.

Posted by: Kunal on 07/25/2008

I said the same thing as David. Why didn't you accept my comment??! I said some more things which the people of this world should know.

Posted by: Mohan on 07/25/2008

David, such is the standard of cricket journalism and Cricinfo these days!

Posted by: yogesh on 07/25/2008

Notwithstanding the errors made in things like definition of ESR, Rob makes a fair point. Cricket is not served very well by statisticians. For example, there is no measure for contribution of a batsman to victory. So you cannot judge easily whether Tendulkar or Dravid has been more important for the Indian team in test matches. A measure like runs scored in winning games is incomplete,as surely a 70 on a green top in a winning cause when the team score is 190 is more important than 150 when the team score was 550.

Posted by: Charles Davis on 07/25/2008

Speaking as a cricket statistician, there is an interesting unspoken assumption here. When it is said that no internet databases will answer the questions, what this really means is that no one will answer the questions for free. The internet is a fantastic resource for fans and statisticians alike, but for those who need to make a living, there is a problem. Any new stats someone publishes (often after a great deal of work) will soon find their way to the internet without any recompense. You can't copyright information. That's the way it goes, but this discourages genuinely innovative or new work in the area. I know this from hard experience. There are statisticians out there (including myself) who could answer most of your questions, but there is little or no reward for publishing stuff like this any more.

Posted by: Anjo on 07/25/2008

I completely disagree with Charles. I've noticed that the bloggers at Cricinfo's "It Figures" consistently use this argument, that their intellectual property is undervalued and so they are not prepared to present "hard work" without getting hard cash in return. Its disgraceful when shoddy statistical work (such as poor methodology justifying why Australia's 2001 team was best) is presented and an author uses this argument to cover his tracks.

Given the interest (site traffic!) in the subject, rather than try to sell databases or stats, I think creating a good "OPEN" website which allows such queries and provides decent statistical guides will reward them sufficiently, as well as enrich analysis since more people can contribute and fine tune proposed theories. Sadly the archaic eBusiness principles of the '90s seem more appealing than the proven success of open interactive websites that have embraced Web 2.0 . Or it might be that certain teams pay high enough for exclusive analysis?

Posted by: Dominic Sayers on 07/25/2008

I don't think Joel Garner would have been too worried about people reverse-sweeping him or any other fancy shots. I think he would have welcomed the attempt since it would only have made his figures even better.

Posted by: Charles Davis on 07/25/2008

I must respond to the misleading assertions by Anjo, as I am a regular contributor to the 'It Figures' blog. I have never made any comments of any kind on the blog on the subject of payments, nor have I ever commented on the blog on the qualities of the 2001 Australian side.

Posted by: Anjo on 07/25/2008

I'm sorry Charles, I based one assertion on the first comment you made here in conjunction with a reply from another blogger on "It Figures" who warned me of infringing on IPR when I commented/contributed to his analysis. I also retract my second sentence in my first comment here, it should read "some bloggers" and not just "bloggers" as this might imply "all bloggers" on It Figures. The 1000 character limit is partly to blame for this. The analysis on the 2001 Australian side can be found in the May and June archives of "It Figures". I don't believe that I specifically mentioned you worked on that article.
I disagreed with you specifically on "there is a problem for those who make a living", "discourages innovative or new work in the area" and "there is little or no reward for publishing stuff". I'm sorry if that was misunderstood. I firmly believe a good stats website will address all of these issues and advocate open-source in favor of IPR and patents.

Posted by: Don on 07/27/2008

I will add to Charles Davis' comments. In baseball the league pays for all statistics to be recorded and analyzed - and in addition the vast moneys involved make many others available (usually by the TV networks). In cricket, apart from a few books, it is a private issue.
I also have similar records (about club and first class cricket in Australia), but as a private interest. No one pays me to collect them.
Secondly, baseball lends intself far more to statistics because it has very few conditional variables. The game is very linear and it always one hitter and one pitcher. Cricket is far more complicated in that regard.
Your "suggestions" on "new" statistics add nothing that isn't already known to coaches and players. You are just offering another way to see the same numbers (sort of changing the car display from litres/100 km to km/litre).

Posted by: Barath on 07/29/2008

Don - Though the coaches and managers would have a fairly good idea of how good the players are, certain kinds of stats would make their life very easy. For eg, though it is well known that Ganguly is an ordinary fielder, one can minimize risks by developing an 'error stat' that tells us at what position he has been particularly bad and given away lots of runs. Of course, as you say, there are some that are known...like 'saves' in baseball translates to who bowls best at the 'death overs' etc. But it would be both useful and fun to have better stats. And also, cricket being a complicated game as you point out, actually needs good stats for people to be able to deconstruct it easily. I am playing fantasy baseball these days with a bunch of my friends and it is way more interesting than fantasy cricket, I should say. Thanks, Rob, for bringing up this issue.

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Rob Steen is a sportswriter and senior lecturer in sports journalism at the University of Brighton whose books include biographies of Desmond Haynes and David Gower (1995 Cricket Society Literary Award winner) and 500-1 - The Miracle of Headingley '81. His 2004 investigation for The Wisden Cricketer, Whatever Happened to the Black Cricketer?, won the EU Journalism Award For diversity, against discrimination. Sports Journalism -­ A Multimedia Primer, his latest offering, will be published by Routledge in August.
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