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Sachin Tendulkar's outstanding 175 against Australia in Hyderabad meant another huge total was almost chased down
© Getty Images
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I did an analysis on a winning target score in T20s and many subsequent matches showed how close the results of my analysis were. So I have embarked on doing a similar analysis for ODI matches. For ODIs there are a lot more matches available for analysis.
First some exclusions. For obvious reasons, I am going to exclude "Abandoned" matches, "No-result" matches (100 in all), matches which were decided on previous "revised score" rules (56 matches ), the more recent "Duckworth-Lewis" rules (101 matches) and a few incomplete innings. The reason is that the D/L and similar situations distort the scores quite a bit. If a team scores 300 and loses to another team which scores 150 in 20 overs, nothing can be inferred from the match. That leaves us 2659 matches for analysis.
I have taken the first innings scores, grouped these into run ranges and tabulated the results. Then I have derived some conclusions on winning target scores by inspecting and interpreting the results.
Let me say that this is a macro analysis. I would appreciate readers understanding this and avoid making comments such as target winning score depending on bowler quality, toss, day-night, team strength et al. All these have been considered in the past and will be considered in future. Let us give a break to these in this article.
The analysis has been done for the following sets of matches.
1. All matches.
2. Starting period matches.
3. Middle period matches.
4. Modern period matches.
5. Matches in Asian sub-continent.
6. Matches outside Asian sub-continent.
I tried analysing this for the countries, but did not get far since the number of matches played comes down and the number of matches in each run group becomes so small that it is impossible to derive any conclusions. In fact for a country such as New Zealand the % of wins for 240-249 is 81.2% and for 250-259 is 60.0%. Such inconsistencies make a country-level analysis a non-starter. Only for Australia, with 472 matches, could this be done with some level of confidence.
How does one define what is a winning score? I have worked on the basis that a score which gives the team a winning possibility of around 60% can be considered a winning target score. Anything lower will not give the team any edge in the long run and aiming for much higher than 60% might backfire on the team in that they might aim for 300 and end up with 220.
1. All matches
FBatScore Matches Wins % wins AvgeWinMargin
Below 125 108 4 3.7 12.8
125 - 149 140 13 9.3 25.9
150 - 174 221 36 16.3 29.6
175 - 199 334 82 24.6 34.0
200 - 219 339 134 39.5 46.0
220 - 229 198 94 47.5 42.4
230 - 239 196 104 53.1 45.8
240 - 249 191 110 57.6 55.4
250 - 259 166 100 60.2 59.3
260 - 279 294 217 73.8 62.3
280 - 299 204 157 77.0 80.2
Above 300 268 243 90.7 101.5
Total 2659 1294 48.7 63.3
From a perusal of the above, it is a reasonable conclusion that a winning target score, based on the criteria already set, is around 250.
2. First period matches (1971-1989)
FBatScore Matches Wins % wins AvgeWinMargin
Below 125 26 2 7.7 7.0
125 - 149 32 4 12.5 15.5
150 - 174 65 11 16.9 25.1
175 - 199 98 29 29.6 36.2
200 - 219 91 39 42.9 45.7
220 - 229 42 23 54.8 30.9
230 - 239 56 35 62.5 48.5
240 - 249 41 25 61.0 60.4
250 - 259 23 16 69.6 57.6
260 - 279 53 40 75.5 60.1
280 - 299 21 19 90.5 82.1
Above 300 16 16 100.0 122.7
Total 564 259 45.9 53.9
Things were tough for the batsmen during these early bowler-friendly times. Lower totals were defended more often than not. Hence the winning target score for this period was 235. Even this has been reached with the higher scores during late 1980s.
No team which scored 300+ runs finished on the losing side. The highest score successfully chased during this period was by New Zealand who overhauled England's score of 296 during 1983. India defended a total of 125 against Pakistan quite comfortably while Pakistan defended a total of 87 in 16 overs against India.
3. Middle period matches (1990-1999)
FBatScore Matches Wins % wins AvgeWinMargin
Below 125 21 1 4.8 14.0
125 - 149 42 5 11.9 18.4
150 - 174 73 15 20.5 35.8
175 - 199 115 30 26.1 32.1
200 - 219 131 56 42.7 38.5
220 - 229 77 42 54.5 44.4
230 - 239 66 36 54.5 40.2
240 - 249 66 43 65.2 45.8
250 - 259 59 34 57.6 44.6
260 - 279 91 70 76.9 67.4
280 - 299 54 41 75.9 73.6
Above 300 61 57 93.4 91.6
Total 856 430 50.2 54.7
Things improved for batsmen during this period. Consequently the winning target score increased to around 240.
4 300+ totals were chased successfully. Australia defended a total of 101 in 30 overs against West Indies.
4. Modern period matches (2000-2009)
FBatScore Matches Wins % wins AvgeWinMargin
Below 125 61 1 1.6 23.0
125 - 149 66 4 6.1 45.8
150 - 174 83 10 12.0 25.2
175 - 199 121 23 19.0 33.8
200 - 219 117 39 33.3 57.1
220 - 229 79 29 36.7 48.6
230 - 239 74 33 44.6 49.1
240 - 249 84 42 50.0 62.1
250 - 259 84 50 59.5 69.9
260 - 279 150 107 71.3 59.8
280 - 299 129 97 75.2 82.6
Above 300 191 170 89.0 102.8
Total 1239 605 48.8 73.5
In the modern times, many more high totals were chased successfully. This effect percolated down and the winning target score could be pegged at 260.
300+ chases were commonplace with South Africa's overtaking Australian score of 434 being the highlight. West Indies defended a total of 124 in 30 overs against Bangladesh.
5. Asian sub-continent matches
FBatScore Matches Wins % wins AvgeWinMargin
Below 125 31 2 6.5 7.0
125 - 149 52 1 1.9 38.0
150 - 174 81 17 21.0 26.9
175 - 199 121 31 25.6 41.5
200 - 219 123 54 43.9 41.8
220 - 229 74 31 41.9 47.7
230 - 239 80 43 53.8 48.3
240 - 249 72 38 52.8 52.8
250 - 259 58 39 67.2 39.5
260 - 279 118 90 76.3 61.5
280 - 299 91 67 73.6 80.6
Above 300 104 95 91.3 94.1
Total 1005 508 50.5 61.1
The winning target score for the Asian sub-continent is around 255. It is not easy to defend low totals on these batting-friendly pitches.
6. Outside Asian sub-continent matches
FBatScore Matches Wins % wins AvgeWinMargin
Below 125 77 2 2.6 18.5
125 - 149 88 12 13.6 24.9
150 - 174 140 19 13.6 31.9
175 - 199 213 51 23.9 29.5
200 - 219 216 80 37.0 48.9
220 - 229 124 63 50.8 39.8
230 - 239 116 61 52.6 44.1
240 - 249 119 72 60.5 56.7
250 - 259 108 61 56.5 72.0
260 - 279 176 127 72.2 62.9
280 - 299 113 90 79.6 79.9
Above 300 164 148 90.2 106.2
Total 1654 786 47.5 64.8
Surprisingly the winning target score is the same as for Asian sub-continent. This has been caused by the way the New Zealand and English pitches have eased in recent times. The winning target score is around 250. Quite a few sub-150 totals have been defended.
Finally it can be seen that, barring the first period, the winning target score is either side of 250.
I started this article before the Hyderabad ODI between India and Australia, and fibnished it after the match. One more 300+ total (oh! a 350+ total) almost bit the dust. No score is safe, it looks like. However this match does not change this article a bit.
As requested by Khalil, I have done an analysis of the period 2005-09 and presenbted the table here.
7. Recent matches (2005-2009)
FBatScore Matches Wins % wins AvgeWinMargin
Below 125 27 0 0.0 0.0
125 - 149 33 2 6.1 49.0
150 - 174 39 6 15.4 27.3
175 - 199 52 10 19.2 33.8
200 - 219 62 20 32.3 62.3
220 - 229 34 9 26.5 49.9
230 - 239 48 22 45.8 47.9
240 - 249 40 17 42.5 69.1
250 - 259 42 24 57.1 67.0
260 - 279 67 45 67.2 54.2
280 - 299 62 46 74.2 84.2
ABove 300 125 111 88.8 103.2
Total 631 312 49.4 76.6
The winning par score could be pegged at 265, 5 runs above the 2000s value. Otherwise the numbers have stayed similar to the 2000s values.
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Kapil Dev scripted one of the greatest rescue acts in ODIs, in the 1983 World Cup against Zimbabwe
© Getty Images
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Recently a tri-nation ODI tournament was held in Bangladesh. The teams were Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe. The normal script for such tournaments runs like this. Sri Lanka blasts away the other two teams. These two teams trade blows and one of them emerges winner on points. Then the final is played. Sri Lanka wins by over 100 runs or by quite a few wickets with overs to spare.
The script was thrown out right at the beginning. Bangladesh lost to Zimbabwe, Zimbabwe lost to Sri Lanka and, with their backs to the wall, Bangladesh defeated Sri Lanka and the two teams qualified for the final.
In the final, Sri Lanka dismissed Bangladesh for 152 and everyone must have thought, "Ok, we are back to norrmalcy". Sri Lanka would win comfortably with many overs to spare. But, 30 minutes later, the score was 6 for 5 (or the Australians would have called 5 for 6). Jayasuriya went first ball, then Tharanga, Jayawardene, Kapugedara and Thushara were dismissed by the 8th over for 6 runs. Were we going to see Sri Lanka dismissed for the lowest total ever or Bangladesh win by over 100 runs. Slowly but surely Sri Lanka stabilised, still slumped to 114 for 8 but won through Muralitharan's heroics by two wickets.
My mind went back 26 years, to Tunbridge Wells. Almost a similar situation but a match of far greater significance.
I thought it would be a nice idea to look at such ODI recoveries over the years. There is something romantic about such recoveries from totally disastrous situations since invariably the late order batsmen come into play. There is also a wonderful innings played in most of these recoveries.
Let us first look at the criteria for selection of matches. The fun in this exercise is in setting up of the criteria for selection, which is very different to what I normally do. I have worked on the following criteria. The criteria has been decided after a few trial-and-error steps. At this stage the result is immaterial and is not one of the selection criteria.
1. From <20 for 4 to 200+ or
2. From <25 for 5 to 200+ or
3. From <30 for 6 to 150+ or
4. From <50 for 7 to 150+ or
5. From <50 for 8 to 150+ or
The results are tabulated below. Quite an interesting collection of matches. There are overlapping situations in couple of matches which have been marked.
2005 2273 Ind 44 for 8 to 164 all out ( 4.21) vs Nzl Lost
2000 1612 Pak 49 for 7 to 153 all out ( 3.12) vs Saf Lost
(Earlier 19 for 6, 18 for 5 and 13 for 4)
2009 2794 Slk 6 for 5 to 153 for 8 (25.50) vs Bng Won
1983 0216 Ind 17 for 5 to 266 for 8 (15.65) vs Zim Won
(Earlier 9 for 4)
1997 1248 Pak 9 for 4 to 262 for 9 (29.11) vs Saf Lost
2002 1906 Zim 13 for 4 to 210 all out (16.15) vs Pak Lost
2006 2335 Nzl 13 for 4 to 204 for 7 (15.69) vs Win Won
1996 1082 Aus 15 for 4 to 207 for 8 (13.80) vs Win Won
1988 0487 Ind 15 for 4 to 205 all out (13.67) vs Win Lost
2008 2702 Bng 16 for 4 to 210 all out (13.12) vs Pak Lost
1999 1473 Ind 17 for 4 to 205 all out (12.06) vs Aus Lost
2000 1622 Saf 19 for 4 to 206 for 7 (10.84) vs Aus Won
In the first match, India were reeling at 44 for 8 while chasing a meagre total of 215 in Bulawayo. Then the unlikely pair of JP Yadav and Irfan Pathan stepped in and took the total to 162, raising visions of an impossible win. Then Bond came back and dismissed Pathan and India lost by 51 runs. Bond's opening spell was one of the greatest ever. He finished with 6 for 19.
In the second match, Pakistan slumped to 18 for 5, 19 for 6, 49 for 7 (and 98 for 9), Terbrugge doing most of the damage. Azhar amd Mushtaq took the total to 153. This total was overhauled comfortably by South Africa.
We have talked enough earlier about the third match. This and the following match should rank among the greatest of recoveries especially as the teams won.
Now we come to the match, which, if it had been scripted by a writer, would have been labelled impossible. India were reeling at 9 for 4 and then 17 for 5 against Zimbabwe at Tunbridge Wells. Then Kapil Dev played one of the greatest ODI innings ever of 175 not out and took India to 266 for 8. The rest was history. India defeated Zimbabwe and went on to win the World Cup, the greatest of India's cricket achievements. The importance of this recovery cannot be over-emphasised since a loss would have meant a possible exit from the World Cup.
Then come a host of recoveries from nothing-for-4 situations. The most important among these matches is match # 1082, which was the World Cup 1996 Semi Final. Australia were facing a still strong West Indies. Ambrose and Bishop reduced them to 15 for 4. Then Stuart Law, Bevan and Healy took them to a modest total of 207. West Indies, after being 165 for 2, were well and truly Warne'd, as he captured 4 for 36, and fell an agonizing 5 runs short. Australia reached the final, surprisingly lost but went on to win the next three World Cups and launch years of Australian domination.
My next article will be a long-awaited one, on Test batsmen across the ages.
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Ajantha Mendis' strike-rate of 16 has helped boost the overall strike-rate for spinners in recent years
© AFP
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This is a statistical summary of the 2784 matches which have been played over the past 36 years, somewhat similar to the Test analysis I had done earlier. Certain changes have been done to the analysis to bring out the nuances of ODIs. As I have indicated in earlier posts, these factors will be incorporated into the ODI batting and ODI bowling analysis which will be done henceforth.
I wanted to incorporate the Duckworth/Lewis (or its equivalent) calculations in ODI matches into the article. However I feel that it warrants a separate article in the light of the farce during the fourth ODI between India and England in Cuttack.
The six periods have been constructed taking into account the number of matches. It is possible minor adjustments will bring major rule changes in sync with the periods. However that would leave the number of matches unbalanced.
Let us get into the analysis of the tables. These tables are current upto ODI #2784, the fourth ODI between Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka.
1. Match analysis (Runs/Wkts per match, Rpo, Rpw)
Period Mats R/M W/M Rpo Rpw|Mats Balls Runs Wkts
1971-1983 230 386 14.1 4.17 27.4 | 230 127653 88731 3236
1984-1989 368 393 13.6 4.42 28.8 | 368 196071 144445 5017
1990-1995 429 400 13.8 4.43 29.0 | 429 232499 171613 5921
1996-2000 635 426 14.4 4.71 29.6 | 635 344424 270484 9147
2001-2005 647 426 14.1 4.85 30.1 | 647 340291 275350 9149
2006-2008 475 424 14.4 4.95 29.6 | 475 244589 201631 6820
All ODIs 2784 414 14.1 4.65 29.3 |2784 1485527 1152254 39290
The wickets per match has been reasonably steady over the years. There is a 10% increase over the past few years in the runs per match. However, the major change is in runs per over (rpo), which has shown an 18% increase over the years. The current rpo figure is about 10% over the all-time average. The runs per wicket has remained almost the same over the past 25 years.
There must be very little doubt the rpo has shown an increase primarily due to the change in the treatment of the opening overs and Powerplays.
2. Match/Inns Analysis (Low & High inns scores)
Period %I<100 %I>300 %M>300x2 |Inns I<100 I>300 M>300x2
1971-1983 7.41 2.86 0.00 | 455 10 13 0
1984-1989 5.49 0.55 0.00 | 729 9 4 0
1990-1995 4.44 2.23 0.47 | 853 10 19 2
1996-2000 1.98 5.48 1.73 |1259 8 69 11
2001-2005 5.77 7.72 2.01 |1283 24 99 13
2006-2008 6.47 10.87 3.58 | 938 20 102 17
All ODIs 4.90 5.55 1.54 |5517 81 306 43
The percentage of (all out) innings below 100 follows a peculiar pattern. It’s very high during the two end periods and very low during one particular period (1996-2000). Frankly, I cannot explain the sub-2% figure.
The 300-plus total, after being virtually non-existent during the 1980s, has now moved to over 10%. In other words, more than one in every 10 innings is a 300-plus innings. The batsmen never had it so good. Spare a thought for the bowlers, shackled in every which way.
I am intrigued when I look at the last few years. There is a high percentage of totals below 100 and an extraordinarily high number of totals above 300. Maybe it indicates a number of weak teams and a few strong teams.
The first match in which both teams exceeded 300 runs occurred in 1992 between Zimbabwe and Sri Lanka in New Plymouth. Since then it has happened quite frequently, with high number of occurrences in recent years.
3. Opening partnerships analysis
Period Open OP100+ OPSub10 |OpPShps 100+ Sub10 Runs
1971-1983 34.9 7.0% 25.5% | 455 32 116 15863
1984-1989 34.9 6.3% 27.0% | 729 46 197 25461
1990-1995 35.8 7.3% 26.7% | 853 62 228 30507
1996-2000 35.3 6.8% 26.9% | 1259 85 339 44462
2001-2005 34.5 8.1% 30.6% | 1283 104 392 44226
2006-2008 33.7 7.0% 32.4% | 938 66 304 31621
All ODIs 34.8 7.2% 28.6% | 5517 395 1576 192140
The opening partnerships have averaged around 35 over the years with very little variations. Similarly there has been a 7% occurrence of 100-plus opening partnerships through the different periods. It is only in the failed opening partnerships that there has been a significant 20-25% increase during the current decade. This may again be a reflection of more weaker teams.
4. Extras Analysis - per 300 balls (Extras/Byes/Leg-byes/No-balls/Wides)
Period E/3b B/3b L/3b N/3b W/3b|Extras Byes Leg-byes No-balls
Wides
1971-1983 15.1 1.8 8.0 2.7 2.6| 6446 780 3419 1137
1110
1984-1989 16.9 1.8 8.4 2.5 4.2| 11031 1161 5520 1605
2745
1990-1995 16.9 1.1 7.2 2.7 6.0| 13060 834 5547 2063
4616
1996-2000 17.7 1.0 6.0 3.1 7.6| 20325 1153 6901 3547
8724
2001-2005 17.9 1.0 5.4 3.4 8.1| 20278 1142 6071 3879
9171
2006-2008 17.4 1.0 5.1 2.4 8.9| 14172 800 4143 1970
7244
All ODIs 17.2 1.2 6.4 2.9 6.8| 85312 5870 31601 14201
33610
This time I have computed the extras per 300 balls, as it constitutes being a normal completed innings. The extras per 300 balls has remained fairly static over the years. Byes have dropped significantly after the first two periods and then remained static. This has occurred despite the wicketkeeper standing up to a number of medium-pacers. Similarly, the leg-byes per match was quite high during the first two periods and then dropped off. One possible reason could be the deployment of more spinners after the initial two periods.
The number of wides per 300 balls has increased drastically over the years, certainly because of very strict interpretation of wides by the umpires. It is true the number of off-side wides has increased significantly over the past few years. Also, virtually no allowance is given for any leg-side deviation.
Now we come to no-balls. Very interesting indeed. The last three years has seen a drastic drop in no-balls per match. This is not because the bowlers have suddenly become more attentive about where to land their feet. The reduction has been primarily caused by the free-hit rule, which penalises bowlers to a great extent. While not accepting that this is necessarily a correct law change - it penalises an already-beleagured bowler more - there is no denying the bowlers are now a lot more careful about overstepping.
The recent rule changes also mean that there are more transgressions covered for declaring no-balls, such as short deliveries and deliberate high full tosses. This would also contribute to the increase in no-balls.
5. Results Analysis - (Results/HomeWins/AwayWins/NoRes)
Period FbtW SbtW OthW NoRes |Mats FbtW SbtW OthW NoRes
1971-1983 47.8 48.3 0.4 3.5 | 230 110 111 1 8
1984-1989 42.9 53.0 0.5 3.5 | 368 158 195 2 13
1990-1995 51.0 44.5 0.0 4.4 | 429 219 191 0 19
1996-2000 46.5 49.1 0.2 4.3 | 635 295 312 1 27
2001-2005 49.3 46.2 0.2 4.3 | 647 319 299 1 28
2006-2008 46.1 49.1 0.0 4.8 | 475 219 233 0 23
First a summary of the "Other wins" matches.
ODI # 56: Conceded by India against Pakistan as a gesture of protest.
ODI # 435: India defeated Pakistan on the basis of losing fewer wickets.
ODI # 522: Pakistan defeated Australia on the basis of losing fewer wickets.
ODI # 1081: Sri Lanka won by default against India because of Calcutta
crowd disturbances.
ODI # 1724: Conceded by England against Pakistan as a sporting gesture.
During two of the periods (early 1990s and early 2000s), the teams batting first won more matches than teams chasing. During the other four periods, more teams have won chasing than defending. Overall also there seems to be an edge for the team batting second. This difference seems to be more pronounced during the past few years. The number of "No results" has also increased significantly, probably caused by the obsession to play matches during all 12 months, irrespective of weather conditions.
1. Batting analysis (Right & Left)
Period R-Avg L-Avg T-Avg|R-Inns R-Runs|L-Inns L-Runs|T-Inns
T-Runs
1971-1983 25.00 27.21 25.48| 3125 63208| 847 19077| 3972
82285
1984-1989 26.99 24.89 26.60| 5174 110394| 1110 23020| 6284
133414
1990-1995 26.20 28.50 26.80| 5514 114697| 1844 43856| 7358
158553
1996-2000 25.59 31.74 27.39| 7980 165169| 3211 84990|11191
250159
2001-2005 26.64 30.95 27.90| 8068 172554| 3184 82518|11252
255072
2006-2008 26.53 30.20 27.51| 6145 132316| 2189 55143| 8334
187459
All ODIs 26.23 29.86 27.18|36006 758338|12385 308604|48391
1066942
Barring the first period, the batting average seems to have settled around a value of 27.
As in Test matches, the left-handers have a higher average (by a margin of 15%). Most of the reader comments on this topic will be applicable. Note the very high average for left-handers during the most recent period.
2. Batting analysis 2 (Batting strike-rate - Left & Right)
Period R-SR L-SR T-SR|R-Runs R-Balls|L-Runs LBalls| T-Runs
T-Balls
1971-1983 63.6 64.5 63.8| 63208 99457| 19077 29586| 82285
129043
1984-1989 68.0 64.0 67.2|110394 162407| 23020 35986| 133414
198393
1990-1995 67.1 68.0 67.3|114697 170985| 43856 64480| 158553
235465
1996-2000 70.8 73.8 71.8|165169 233336| 84990 115219| 250159
348555
2001-2005 73.4 75.9 74.2|172554 235245| 82518 108727| 255072
343972
2006-2008 76.3 75.7 76.1|132316 173455| 55143 72877| 187459
246332
All ODIs 70.6 72.3 71.0|758338 1074885|308604 426875|1066942
1501760
The scoring-rate was quite low during the first three periods and has now picked up to be around the 76-mark. There is a significant variation of around 20% over the years. Barring one period, the left-handers seem to be scoring slightly faster than right-handers.
3. Bowling analysis 1 (Bowling average - Pace & Spin)
Period P-Avg S-Avg T-Avg|PWkts PRuns|SWkts SRuns| TWkts
TRuns
1971-1983 27.49 34.51 28.64| 2402 66042| 471 16254| 2873
82296
1984-1989 30.50 34.86 31.63| 3227 98432| 1124 39185| 4351
137617
1990-1995 30.84 36.13 32.25| 3754 115771| 1369 49460| 5123
165231
1996-2000 31.69 34.93 32.76| 5357 169762| 2653 92665| 8010
262427
2001-2005 31.20 35.88 32.50| 5896 183949| 2277 81697| 8173
265646
2006-2008 31.24 33.56 31.77| 4734 147904| 1386 46509| 6120
194413
All ODIs 30.82 35.10 31.97|25370 781860| 9280 325770|34650
1107630
The bowling average follows the same pattern as batting strike-rate. Quite low during the first period and then plateauing around 31 during the next five periods.
As expected the averages for pace bowlers are lower - only over 10% - when compared to spinners. The last period, however, has seen a narrowing of this gap. The trend of depending on spinners has also picked up as evidenced by the recently concluded Zimbabwe-Sri Lanka series, where both teams had two fast bowlers and an assortment of four to five spinners.
4. Bowling analysis 2 (Bowling strike-rate - Pace & Spin)
Period P-SR S-SR T-SR|PWkts PBalls|SWkts SBalls| TWkts
TBalls
1971-1983 43.2 50.7 44.4| 2402 103758| 471 23895| 2873
127653
1984-1989 43.7 48.9 45.1| 3227 141092| 1124 54979| 4351
196071
1990-1995 43.8 49.8 45.4| 3754 164280| 1369 68219| 5123
232499
1996-2000 41.5 46.0 43.0| 5357 222455| 2653 121969| 8010
344424
2001-2005 39.2 46.7 41.3| 5896 230917| 2277 106387| 8173
337304
2006-2008 38.3 43.8 39.5| 4734 181269| 1386 60668| 6120
241937
All ODIs 41.1 47.0 42.7|25370 1043771| 9280 436117|34650
1479888
Surprisingly, there seems to be a distinct improvement of bowler strike-rates during the past few years. Again, one cannot but point to the number of weak teams playing one-day cricket.
The strike-rate for pace bowlers are 15% better those for spinners. Recently, spinners seem to be striking better, no doubt aided by Ajantha Mendis, who has taken 48 wickets in his first 17 matches at a strike-rate of a wicket every 16 balls. (Yes, you read it right, 16.)
5. Bowling analysis 3 (Bowling rpo - Pace & Spin)
Period PRpo SRpo TRpo| PRuns PBalls| SRuns SBalls| TRuns
TBalls
1971-1983 3.82 4.08 3.87| 66042 103758| 16254 23895| 82296
127653
1984-1989 4.19 4.28 4.21| 98432 141092| 39185 54979| 137617
196071
1990-1995 4.23 4.35 4.26|115771 164280| 49460 68219| 165231
232499
1996-2000 4.58 4.56 4.57|169762 222455| 92665 121969| 262427
344424
2001-2005 4.78 4.61 4.73|183949 230917| 81697 106387| 265646
337304
2006-2008 4.90 4.60 4.82|147904 181269| 46509 60668| 194413
241937
All ODIs 4.49 4.48 4.49|781860 1043771|325770 436117|1107630
1479888
The rpo seems to have increased by about 5% during recent years - not a very big change. The surprise is that the all-matches rpo figure for pace bowlers and spinners is almost the same.
6. Dismissals analysis
a. Bowled - (% and per match)
Period Bowled Wkts % of Tot Bow/Mtch
1971-1983 813 2873 28.3 3.5
1984-1989 1177 4351 27.1 3.2
1990-1995 1201 5123 23.4 2.8
1996-2000 1771 8010 22.1 2.8
2001-2005 1762 8173 21.6 2.7
2006-2008 1251 6120 20.4 2.6
All ODIs 7975 34650 23.0 2.9
b. Lbw - (% and per match)
Period Lbw Wkts % of Tot Lbw/Mtch
1971-1983 289 2873 10.1 1.3
1984-1989 382 4351 8.8 1.0
1990-1995 497 5123 9.7 1.2
1996-2000 820 8010 10.2 1.3
2001-2005 932 8173 11.4 1.4
2006-2008 752 6120 12.3 1.6
All ODIs 3672 34650 10.6 1.3
c. Caught - (% and per match)
Period Ct Others Wkts % of Tot COt/Mtch
1971-1983 1234 2873 43.0 5.4
1984-1989 1944 4351 44.7 5.3
1990-1995 2336 5123 45.6 5.4
1996-2000 3800 8010 47.4 6.0
2001-2005 3843 8173 47.0 5.9
2006-2008 2856 6120 46.7 6.0
All ODIs 16013 34650 46.2 5.8
d. Stumped - (% and per match)
Period Stumped Wkts % of Tot Bow/Mtch
1971-1983 54 2873 1.9 0.2
1984-1989 141 4351 3.2 0.4
1990-1995 183 5123 3.6 0.4
1996-2000 317 8010 4.0 0.5
2001-2005 222 8173 2.7 0.3
2006-2008 194 6120 3.2 0.4
All ODIs 1111 34650 3.2 0.4
e. Ct by Wk - (% and per match)
Period Ct by Wk Wkts % of Tot CWk/Mtch
1971-1983 443 2873 15.4 1.9
1984-1989 648 4351 14.9 1.8
1990-1995 838 5123 16.4 2.0
1996-2000 1183 8010 14.8 1.9
2001-2005 1386 8173 17.0 2.1
2006-2008 1016 6120 16.6 2.1
All ODIs 5514 34650 15.9 2.0
f. Runouts - (% and per match)
Period Runouts Wkts % of Tot RO/Mtch
1971-1983 356 2873 12.4 1.5
1984-1989 661 4351 15.2 1.8
1990-1995 793 5123 15.5 1.8
1996-2000 1121 8010 14.0 1.8
2001-2005 887 8173 10.9 1.4
2006-2008 637 6120 10.4 1.3
All ODIs 4455 34650 12.9 1.6
Summarised comments on dismissals
1. While the drop is not as pronounced as Test matches, the percentage of batsmen bowled, which had been high during the first two periods, has fallen to around 20% now.
2. There has been a slight increase in the lbw percentage over the years - possibly reverse-swing coming into play.
3. As expected, the percentage of catches is quite high and has remained around 45% over the years.
4. The percentage of stumpings was quite high at 4% during the late 1990s but has slipped since then. Even now an attacking spinner like Mendis, with 48 wickets in 17 matches, seems to depend more on direct dismissals such as bowled and leg-before wicket.
5. Wicketkeeper catches have only varied slightly and are now a bit higher than the all-matches average percentage.
6. Run-outs peaked to over 15% during the decade 1985-1995 but have dropped off since then. Possibly the introduction of the third umpire seems to favour the batsmen in border-line decisions.
A separate article on Duckworth/Lewis will follow during the coming weeks.
