The earlier article uncovered a measure which could stand firm across decades, across different types of pitches/conditions and across different types of bowling skills and strategies. There were not many comments. However there were two comments which suggested enhancing the analysis by expanding the scope of coverage. These two were very sound and I decided to do a follow-up immediately before coming out the eagerly-awaited Test Bowler Analysis next week.
First a recap. The initial analysis compared the Batsman career strike rate with the rest of the team's strike rate, in the matches played by the batsman. The concerned table is given below.
Player career strike rates compared to own team strike rates
There were two excellent suggestions. The more far-reaching and top-drawer suggestion came from Abdulla who suggested that I compare the player strike rates with the strike rates applicable for all the players during the players' career. A simple suggestion. However this was also quite difficult to develop but has far-reaching implications in that it allows us to look at a players' career in true perspective, viz., in relation to his exact peers.
I have built a Player career span segment of the database. The great thing is that such comparisons can now be made not just on strike rates but on other relevant factors such as Batting and Bowling averages, Strike Rates, Bowling accuracy, Runs per match et al. My sincere thanks to Abdulla for opening the door on this fascinating treasure-trove.
In both cases I have taken care that the players' own performances and team extras are excluded from the Match and Player career span figures (for want of a better term. Readers are invited to offer their suggestions for this measure.)
Player career strike rates compared to Player career span strike rates
SNo Batsman Cty St/Rt <---Player Career Span---> Ratio
Mats Runs Balls St/Rt
1.Shahid Afridi Pak 1.110 1727 675319 905740 0.746 148.9%
2.Kapil Dev N Ind 0.951 884 315912 472334 0.669 142.1%
3.Sehwag V Ind 1.019 1399 542088 726324 0.746 136.5%
4.Richards I.V.A Win 0.902 657 231329 347757 0.665 135.6%
5.Powell R.L Win 0.967 821 317559 432398 0.734 131.6%
6.Gilchrist A.C Aus 0.969 1559 606126 816737 0.742 130.6%
7.Jayasuriya S.T Slk 0.911 2223 852640 1166792 0.731 124.6%
8.Wasim Akram Pak 0.880 1704 648988 913613 0.710 123.9%
9.Symonds A Aus 0.924 1479 576233 770030 0.748 123.5%
10.Zaheer Abbas Pak 0.800 325 111928 172049 0.651 122.9%
11.Klusener L Saf 0.899 1136 440634 601710 0.732 122.8%
12.Flintoff A Eng 0.888 1405 547613 731734 0.748 118.7%
13.Yuvraj Singh Ind 0.893 1226 477541 630604 0.757 117.9%
14.Dhoni M.S Ind 0.909 657 258316 334702 0.772 117.8%
15.Chappell G.S Aus 0.755 196 66408 103226 0.643 117.3%
16.Tendulkar S.R Ind 0.856 2231 851567 1164382 0.731 117.1%
17.McCullum B.B Nzl 0.890 1040 406431 534609 0.760 117.1%
18.Pollock S.M Saf 0.867 1634 642511 863944 0.744 116.6%
19.Cairns C.L Nzl 0.842 1644 634542 875659 0.725 116.2%
20.de Silva P.A Slk 0.808 1735 653214 921125 0.709 113.9%
...
83.Samuels M.N Win 0.756 1071 422058 558413 0.756 100.1%
84.Javed Miandad Pak 0.672 1053 377675 559175 0.675 99.5%
...
142.Wessels K.C Saf 0.556 770 276221 408463 0.676 82.2%
143.Habibul Bashar Bng 0.605 1590 625424 843319 0.742 81.5%
144.Campbell S.L Win 0.590 743 291157 400299 0.727 81.2%
145.Tillakaratne H.P Slk 0.579 1598 612869 857466 0.715 81.0%
146.Mudassar Nazar Pak 0.524 514 182279 271972 0.670 78.1%
This is truly the measure of greatness. I would appreciate if readers understand that this only compares the Strike Rates and not bring in the Averages into the discussion. That will be the subject of another analysis.
Shahid Afridi truly stands tall in terms of his strike rate comparison with his peers. During his career of 276 matches, a total of 1727 matches were played. The average strike rate, sans Afridi, during these 1727 matches, is an impressive .746 and Afridi outscores his peers at an astounding 148.9%. An underrated player, even by his own countrymen at times, he stands supreme.
Kapil Dev outscored his peers by a wide margin of 42.1% indicating how far ahead he was, at least as far as strike rates are concerned. Then comes Sehwag who has an impressive 36.5% and the incomparable Richards who also has a very good lead over his peers of 35.6%. Ricardo Powell completes the top 5 clocking in at 31.6%.
The Top-10 is rounded by Gilchrist, Jayasuriya, Wasim Akram. Symonds and Zaheer Abbas. All great strikers of the ball. The surprise is the position of Zaheer Abbas. He scored at 22.9% over his peers, indicating his immense contributions during a low scoring period.
There is a significant change so far as Tendulkar is concerned. He outscored his team-mates by 13.9%. Hoever he has outscored his peers, over 431 matches in a span of 2231 matches by an impressive 17.1%.
Samuels and Miandad have almost perfectly matches their peer strike rates. The rear of the table is populated by players who were not known for their striking ability.
The second one, made by Karthik, suggested that I expanded the scope a little bit by comparing with the strike rates applicable for the rest of the match rather than the rest of the innings. This makes a lot of sense since it adjusts for widely varying performances in the same match. My thanks to Karthik.
Player career strike rates compared to Match strike rates
SNo Batsman Cty St/Rt <---Match figures---> Ratio
Runs Balls St/Rt
1.Shahid Afridi Pak 1.110 99136 133940 0.740 150.0%
2.Richards I.V.A Win 0.902 55082 85923 0.641 140.7%
3.Kapil Dev N Ind 0.951 69813 102464 0.681 139.5%
4.Powell R.L Win 0.967 36314 50521 0.719 134.5%
5.Sehwag V Ind 1.019 78773 99466 0.792 128.6%
6.Gilchrist A.C Aus 0.969 106771 139873 0.763 127.0%
7.Wasim Akram Pak 0.880 102549 147528 0.695 126.6%
8.Jayasuriya S.T Slk 0.911 153293 211317 0.725 125.5%
9.Klusener L Saf 0.899 53273 72429 0.736 122.2%
10.Symonds A Aus 0.924 63755 82415 0.774 119.5%
...
77.Gambhir G Ind 0.839 30372 36203 0.839 100.0%
...
144.Marsh G.R Aus 0.564 39756 56599 0.702 80.3%
145.Tillakaratne H.P Slk 0.579 63736 86846 0.734 78.9%
146.Mudassar Nazar Pak 0.524 37385 55308 0.676 77.5%
There is not much of a difference in the ratios when we include the other team's strike rates indicating that the top players outperform their own team mates and match peers by similar margins.
Powell moves down to fourth spot moving Kail Dev and Richards up. Gilchrist moves up substantially indicating that his team mates scored raather freely as compared to his match peers. Gambhir has matched his team mates and match peers exactly. No major change is there at the end except that Marsh moves off the bottom which is now occupied by Mudassar Nazar.
The idea of comparing a player's strike rate to the strike rate of others during the duration of their career is a great way to control for a lot of factors. I'm excited to see the new avenues that opens up for comparing other measures, like you mentioned. You must have quite an extensive database if you can whip up an analysis like this.
Keep the great posts coming, Ananth!
[[
Aneesh
If I get two such ideas per article, I am ready to receive and process 200 other mails which do not contribute anything. I remember your earlier mail on Standard Error of the Mean which explained quite a bit.
I have built up a new Database segment dedicated to the Peer Career values and can do quite a lot with that. Once again my thanks to Abdulla.
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: tushar at July 14, 2009 7:49 AM
Great analysis... and good to see two fearless Indians in top three. This truely proves that Kapil could hit it better than others, and also proves that Sehwag is a true modern great
Posted by: Arjun at July 14, 2009 10:12 AM
Hi Ananth,
I think you can create another table showing the change in RPO of team with/without contribution of individual player. eg. In matches shahid afridi played, say pakistan's RPO is 4.86. If we remove his contribution, that might drop to 4.60. This table will show the contribtuion the player alone has made in increasing(or in rare case decreasing.eg.Geoff marsh) the RPO of his team. I think topping this will be proper batsmen whose scoring rate is high eg.Richards, Sachin, Gilcrist etc.
Arjun. [[
Arjun
My first table is a similar one in that it showed the comparisons in matches between batsman's scoring rate and others' scoring rate. It might not be presented in the way you have indicated but the key elements are there.
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: Jeff at July 14, 2009 11:36 AM
It's great to see Zaheer Abbas recognised - I think he's one of the most under-rated batsmen of my lifetime.
If and when you do get around to expanding the analysis to include average (or ideally Ball per Dismissal) then I would not be at all surprised to find that Abbas moves up to 2nd place behind the incomparable Viv Richards.
Thanks for the analysis. [[
Jeff
When the rest of the world, barring couple of players like Richards/Kapil, were scoring at -70+, Zaheer scored at around 80, almost all the runs with that silken touch of his.
Ananth:
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Posted by: Arjun at July 14, 2009 11:52 AM
Hi Ananth,
The table i was saying goes like this.
Shahid Afridi. OB Runs-49132, OB Balls-65461. TeamRR without is 4.50.
After adding his contribution, Team runs -54774, Team balls-70544, TeamRR with is 4.66.
Diff. is +0.16.
For Viv Richards, TeamRR without is 4.00, TeamRR with is 4.23. Diff. is +0.23.
This list will show Viv Richards above Shahid Afridi even though Afridi's SRate is 20 runs more than Richards.
Arjun. [[
Arjun
Will study this in detail and maybe do a later post.
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: Pradeep at July 14, 2009 2:52 PM
i think Arjun's idea is very appropriate. It will show the contribution of greats like Viv, Sachin and Sanath , whose fast run scoring has really made a difference, as opposed to Shahid or Kapil ( of course Kapil could really BOWL and was a great all rounder and watching Shahid is a lot of fun...)
Plus your analysis of Player strike rate vs Striking rate of his peers is also a great idea,shows how far ahead Viv was of his pears and how Sanath's hitting totally changed the game.
Posted by: Anurag at July 14, 2009 4:54 PM
These new tables are very good indeed , certainly better than the last one. Its good to see that a player like steve tikolo who figured close to the top in the previous table inspite of a strike rate of .76 due to his presence in a poor team has been pushed downwards in the new table. Also contemporaries in the same team such as sehwag-yuvraj and gilchrist-symonds have gone up the table as they were bringing each other down in the previous analysis.
keep it up ananth!!!
talking about arjun's posts, it certainly is an interesting observation. it probably has to do with the fact that each viv richards' innings lasts about 50 balls whereas afridi hangs around for a mere 21 balls on an average. thus richards contributes much more runs to the team total though with a lower strike rate than afridi and hence has a larger impact on the team's overall runrate [[
Pradeep/Anuraag
I agree on the intrinsic quality of Arjun's suggestion. As I have mentioned in my reply to Arjun, let me look at it later. I have delayed the Test Bowler post long enough. Cannot delay it any longer.
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: Abdullah at July 14, 2009 6:39 PM
Hi Ananth
Thanks for incorporating the suggestion I made. I certainly opens up avenues for further analyses in terms of batting averages, bowling averages, strike rates etc.
as pointed out by anurag as well, this list pushes down the players like tikolo, who were high up on the list just because they played in a weak team, while it has helped players like gilchrist etc. to move up the table.
your analyses are always a joy to read. cant wait for bowlers' analysis
Posted by: Al at July 15, 2009 4:51 AM
Arjun, Ananth
The v.good idea by Arjun needs to be expressed as a percentage.
It gives a much better indicator of the impact of individual strike rate on team.i.e. in the Afridi e.g. The diff. of 0.16 requires to be expressed as a percentage of 4.5. Just the No. “0.16” on its own will be insufficient. This provides an indicator of the “value added” by individual player strikerate to the team. [[
Al
You are correct. Maybe both comparisons are needed. I will also look at doing this for the Bowlers' RpO measure also, in a future article.
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: Kartik at July 15, 2009 7:50 AM
'Kartik' and 'Karthik' are different readers, I am the one who provided that suggestions - no 'h' in my name. Anyway, thanks for thinking of my suggestion.
Actually, these changes do make a huge difference for India, as Yuvraj and Dhoni have leapt into the Top-20. India's ODI batting lineup in the last few years has been among the very best ever, routinely covering the fact that India's fielding costs it another 30 runs per opposition innings relative to Australian or South African fielding.
This type of analysis finally give credit to Kapil Dev. What was remarkable was that his ODI strike rate was the highest of any pre-Afridi player, but simultaneously his bowling economy rate was just about the BEST. Only Hadlee, Garner and a couple of others were better. No other player comes close in terms of batting strike rate vs. bowling economy rate. He really was the perfect ODI player, on BOTH ends. A batting strike rate of 93% vs. a bowling economy rate of 62%. Stupendous. [[
Kartik
I myself have been guilty and must take care.
Ananth:
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Posted by: drsuso at July 15, 2009 10:29 AM
Inevitably the list is dominated by power hitters(those who can't play long innings but hit balls with sheer power) or openers.
So special credit goes to Sir Viv and Yuvraj Singh. They are not openers and played long innings and still in the list.
Posted by: kalyan at July 15, 2009 10:58 AM
hiii ananth, again u made a good extension to very good analysis. thank you very much.. Would you pls give us same analysis with average as a criteria... [[
Kalyan
The availability of the Peer Players' Figures Database segment has opened up a whole lot of very interesting analysis on a P2P basis. Will do these over the next few weeks.
Ananth:
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Posted by: Sky at July 15, 2009 9:26 PM
Does this list rewards wooden-headed players who swing at everything without any responsibility?I don't think so but at a pinch, i can locate 5 to 6 of them at least in the top 10.Afridi, Kapil & Powell for starters. How many of Afridi's 16 dismissed off 8 balls that lost the game for Pakistan have been rewarded in this analysis when the team needed to score at only a "Yousufusque" 4.5 RPO to win the game.Would it be better to bring in some factors that acknowledges some player responsibility ? May be weights for strike-rates batting first or chasing a score. And benchmarking strike-rate to batting position.Sehwag's 101.9 may not be 36.5% better than others if his numbers are compared with the strike-rate of other opening batsmen, who also had similar license to slog the first few overs through a contrived set-piece formation.Having said all of this, there is no intention of trying to complicate things further [[
Sky
This is a simple one (ir possibly two) dimensional analysis looking only at one aspect of ODI batting. Any further and it will slowly move into the best innings or best batsmen domain.
Witj people like Afridi one gets exasperated at his not stopping to think for a minute or two. However see the way he did that in the last two matches of the T20 WC. He and Kapil have their wonderful bowling acts to be considered.
I would say that if Afridi won one in 8 matches with his batting, it would be great since he is likely to win another in 8 matches with his bowling making it a 25% hit, a great achievement for a player.
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: Alex at July 16, 2009 5:54 AM
Ananth - Pls see if you can rate the batsmen according to the following "Distructiveness" measure: runs scored*strike rate. After all, an 80 ball 80 could be as damaging to the opponent as a 20 ball 40. [[
Alex
One day when I do a ODI innings analysis this should be done.
Better idea would be 80 x (80/80) x (80/50) = 128 as against 40 x (40/20) x 1 = 80. The 50 is a line beyond which such credit is given. This could also be only for run-a-ball or better innings.
Ananth:
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Posted by: Alex at July 16, 2009 8:44 AM
Ananth - I had thought about the 50's factor but felt that it was not needed. For example, it dilutes the value of, say, Klusener's 30-odd run knocks in the '99 World Cup; those were absolutely crucial.
I do not think that the run-a-ball innings criterion should be applied since the pitch and playing conditions affect the strike rate.
Posted by: eddy at July 16, 2009 11:07 AM
hi Ananth.........i loved your original and re-worked test batsmen analysis and have been waiting weeks in excitement for the bowlers turn.
However have you considered this. Apart from the different time periods (which may or may not take into account pitch differences, equipment, fitness levels, frequency of matches etc) Have you decided to looked at or break down the different types of bowling. Unlike the batsman, bowlers are a very different breed. Your findings may well put Murali at the top of the pile but i would find it a little strange to see a table with... example Murali 1st Marshall 2nd Warne 3rd...etc. Fast bowling and spin bowling, i believe should be judged differently as they require different strengths and skills. This is completely different to the skills of an opener or a number 5 bat.
what you think.
best wishes as always. [[
Eddy
I am sure you know my problems. Too many tables will certainly make the article difficult to read.
I will do one thing. In addition to the three tables I will have two tables, separating the spinners and others. That way people interested in looking at such a separation will be satisfied.
Regards
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: Alex at July 16, 2009 1:17 PM
Ananth - pls see if you can use my suggestion of the "distructiveness rating" and use it, as opposed to the rel. strike rate, in the exercises you did for Abdullah and Kartik/Karthik. [[
Alex,
The great thing with my measure, and enhanced by Abdulla/Kartik is that it is a 100% comparison measure and all other measures do not enter the equaltion. The comparison is on a perfectly matches scenario, be it the pitch, bowlers, strategy, match conditions et al.
Your "Super-score" (have re-christened the same) measure has great relevance when determining the value of individual innings and then on to great batsmen et al. However it has to be added up over x no of innings, divided by x and then becomes like Batting average. Subject to the variations in relevent factors. Also the comparison can be only between batsmen not between batsman and team/match/peers as the current calculation does.
Ananth:
]]
Posted by: Usenet at July 29, 2009 10:03 PM
Sometimes it's really that simple, isn't it? I feel a little stupid for not thinking of this myself/earlier, though.
Y Anantha Narayanan has over 35 years of IT background. Over the past 15 years, he has been concentrating on Cricket analysis and software development. He has been involved with StumpVision, Wisden, Hallmark Software and his own site www.thirdslip.com during this period.
David Barry was cricket-starved when teaching English in France, and
study of cricket stats was his only way to stay sane. He is now back
in Brisbane, Australia, and working towards a PhD in Physics. He once
played for the worst team in the G-division of Muscat's cricket
league.
After doing an MBA in marketing and working in an advertising agency, S Rajesh decided that his skills might be put to better use by number-crunching on cricket. He hasn’t regretted that decision in the last six years, and edits the Numbers Game column on cricinfo.com every Friday.
Andrew Samson had his moments with bat and ball, once scoring 43 and taking 3 for 14 with his legbreaks, but he was much better at arithmetic, which explains why he is where he is today. Andrew has been keeping cricket stats since the days when it used to be done with pen and paper, and has been involved in scoring/stats for Radio and TV since 1987. He has been Cricket South Africa's official statistician since1994.
A former scientist and occasional TV quiz champion, Charles Davis now works full time at sports statistics in Melbourne.
His only real contribution to the Test record books came at age 4, when he formed part of the record 90,800 crowd
who saw West Indies at the MCG in 1961. He has two books to his credit, and claims to be the only cricket statistician
ever who has been quoted in the New York Times and in Australian Federal Parliament on the same day. Not to be
confused with the West Indian batsman Charlie Davis, especially in terms of ability.
Having just taken early retirement as a Mathematics teacher in Hobart, Ric
Finlay now fully devotes his time to recording cricket, both past and
present, for the popular CSW cricket database, along with his colleague
David Fitzgerald (www.tastats.com.au). His interest in the game is
inversely proportional to his ability as a player, but he did once score a
century after being dropped at 3 and running out three of his team-mates.
His first memory of international cricket is the 1962-63 MCC tour of
Australia, described as one of the most boring ever. Totally fascinated, he
was instantly hooked, and has never looked back. Author of three books on
cricket of a historical nature, he has provided statistics and scored for
radio and television cricket coverage since 1983.