There’s always some fun in there for you if you are playing The Predictor – you enjoy the outcome either way. If you end up right with some of them you can always pull up your collar to flaunt that ‘I told U so’ printed in bold on it. For the ones that prove you wrong, it is again fun to revisit the prediction and find the assumed parameters that got altered after you made the prediction. The prediction is only upto semi final qualifications, so that limits my freedom within a reasonable territory.

I am sure to come back and reminisce upon this one just before the 2007 World Cup (surely, and I may even make a fresh set of predictions then to challenge this one!) and re-read it again after the 2007 World Cup is over. Likewise I invite reader friends to leave seeds of their wildest thoughts on the matter here and reap some fun for themselves later on.

Most fun comes from reading a wild-thought post when a number of friends add their thoughts and comments of all kinds, shades and sizes to your thought. The resultant collage is often wonderful to come back to for pure fun.

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New Zealand: Both Test and One-Day fortunes of this team swing as if it were a centre-of-gravity toy named “Shane Bond’s fitness”. In order to make an impact the team needs one or two of their numerous Man Fridays in batting and bowling departments to show up as Robinson Crusoe during the big event.

Sri Lanka: Discussed recently in detail here. This is a team with its sight firmly on glory. Fielding reflects the current attitude of sub-continent teams like no words ever can and Sri Lanka are outta-this-world with that aspect right now. Murali looks as relentless as ever and Vaas has declared his farewell with the big event. We can expect them to breathe fire then.

England: This is an utterly unpredictable setup (the word ‘team’ never presented itself) today. Memories of their performances in last year’s Natwest and Ashes prevent cricket lovers from losing hope and writing them off just yet, even after than 0-5 nightmare loss against Sri Lanka. Achievement of potential in sport though has a lot to do with fitness and any progress in the World Cup will be related to the percentage of main players like Flintoff, Vaughan and Hoggard that report fit after Ashes 2006-07.

Australia: “Pack hunting” advantage is gone from the bowling of the awesome side that conquered South Africa in 2003 and lot depends on Lee these days. Rest is still the best, with Ponting “The Dream: Extended” better than the best.

South Africa: Steadily improving in ODI’s over the last year, and recently drove in 438 stakes to slay the demon that was the “chokers” tag. Good performances in the Sri Lanka tri-series tournament and ICC trophy can prop them up as dark horses as similar conditions await them in the West Indies.

Pakistan: A B-I-G team in this form of the game anywhere, anytime. The longest ODI batting lineup in the world. Assuming their bowling is back to full strength by early next year, only their often-ragged catching and Inzamam’s laidback captaincy at crucial moments can be worrisome leaks in the boat that takes them to another WC semi final appearance.

Now we come to the two teams I have followed with regularity over the last month.

West Indies: Home advantage can see them through to Super Six. Sounds silly but much of the progress they make will depend on how many opposition middle order batsmen allow their medium pacers to dish out those brilliantly disguised slower balls and earn wickets off them.

However their new fast bowlers Fidel Edwards and Jerome Taylor are smart long-term prospects and may even be a handful in 2007 if we see quick wickets at some World Cup venues; development of such talents demand more attention than occasional first class matches and exposure to first class cricket in other countries should be arranged to help them hone their skills. [e.g. Outside of the 24 Tests he played in 3 years, Fidel Edwards has played only 14 first class matches during the four plus years till date since his first class debut].

Dave Mohammad looked a nice chinaman bowling prospect for the future. Everything else, barring those and Sarwan and Lara, is pretty much in the middle zone.

India: Where does that last sentence put India who just lost an ODI series 4-1 to them? Not much needs to be read in there actually. Their key one-day players Irfan Pathan and Mahendra Dhoni lost form in the last series. India have come back with a whole year’s task pending on those West Indian slower balls, as well as the ones they are going to surely face NOW from other teams.

They also have other areas needing attention. India played their last ODI tournament almost a year ago in Zimbabwe; since then they have only played 2-team series. The Indian fielding can do with some sprucing up. Also, most of India’s matches of late have been day affairs.

So there’s plenty of ‘vision-chasing’ scheduled for the ‘greatest chasers of the world’ in the next half-year. That spot in the semi finals seems ever so little less of a certainty now than it was before a fateful Dwayne Bravo yorker sneaked in through Yuvraj Singh’s gate to decide a match.

I summarise my early prediction for CWC’07:

Semis: Australia, Sri Lanka, India and Pakistan (in that order)
Super six: South Africa and one of West Indies / England

Super Six? Surely, you mean Super Eight. There's no super six this time around, Angshu.

I think you're reading a little bit too much into Sri Lanka's performance in England. And placing them as no. 2 after Australia is definitely controversial. My prediction for the four teams to make it to the semis (in no order) is the same as yours, except that I would replace Sri Lanka with South Africa.

Similarly, you shouldn't be reading much into WI's performances against India either. They're still the worst of elite cricketing nations (Zim and Ban don't count). However, they have a local 20/20 tournament starting soon. That might help them out a bit, but probably won't have a big enough effect to propel them to the semis. After all, look at England.

Pratik

I would say South Africa have a better chance to make it to semi finals in comparison to sri lanka..
We should not read much into SriLanka's 5-0 win over England as english team was without their best players and England has not been playing good one day cricket of late.

Also SouthAfrica have made great strides under the captaincy of Grame Smith.They look a formidable opponent in any kind of conditions.

So for me
Semis : Australia,South Africa,India and Pakistan (in that order)

Australia, Srilanka, india and pakistan should be the best bets for world cup 2007.

Shilanka seems to be peeking ath the right time..they should be a force to reckon...especially considering the spinner friendly tracks in Westindies.

Hi, Angs !
OK, India, Pakistan, W Indies(assuming they don't self destruct with contract nonsense and general indifference to team loyalty) and of course, Australia.
S. Africa are over rated and Sri Lanka don't travel well.
New Zealand always does well because they have nothing to lose but it all depends on Fleming and Astle. England ? No chance-too soft-like their football team.
A lot depends on the groups, one might be far stronger than the other-and the menace of bookies; but here's hoping for a Pakistan India final !

Let me utter the un-utterable!! Australia will not make it to the semis. They can still smash any team on a given day, but their ability to do it match after match has dimmed, and someone's going to sneak past them into the semis.

My semi-final teams:
South Africa, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, India (in that order).

Of course India will win the final.

Thanks for sticking your necks out guys - keep them coming. Find myself agreeing to most views - seems to be a real hard fought WC coming up.

Too bad for India that to win the Final they have to Bat AND BOWL !!!!. If they want to give another 359 Runs even Bangladesh might bowl them out.
PS. Yes I know our "B" Team bowlers are being hammered in England right now. But we haven't lost there since '82 and maybe it's about time.

i have no doubt that sri lanka can make it to the semis next year. they did so in 2003 and their build up to the WC that year was one of the worst.and if it weren't for Aravinda's unnecessary run out in that semi final against australia when he was in superb form i'm certain they could have made it to the final.also the west indies pitches would not be alien to them at all.the small grounds will be ideal for their big hitters.

so my prediction for semis-
Australia,South Africa,Sri lanka,india(in no oder)

pakistan has a good chance too but they're just too unpredictable to say for sure.England has no chance at all.i think the biggest mistake for many here is that they've been reading too much in to their ashes win last year, in which one or two wins were down to good fortune more than anything else as i'm sure most of you would agree.but that was test cricket.this is ODI.there's a big difference as acutely exhibited by england themselves in the recent past.