Oddly enough those are the two major nations without a realistic chance of winning the trophy in 2007. Nevertheless, England with their late resurgence on the tour of Australia and the return of the highly dangerous Kevin Pietersen could be worth a flutter to make the semi-finals if a few cards fall their way.

Despite their derailment in the last few weeks, Australia must still be the slight favourite, as they have the players best equipped to cover variable pitch conditions. However, they still have to unearth a bowling combination which can consistently "shut down" the opposition in the final overs, with Glenn McGrath currently their only reasonable performer in that situation. They also desperately need a spinner to regularly take wickets in the overs following the Powerplays. If they don't solve these two major problems and Andrew Symonds isn't effective with his damaged arm, then even their strong batting line-up won't be enough to win them a record third consecutive World Cup.

Depending on what actually transpires in the way of pitch behaviour, teams like South Africa will either have no chance [if they are slow and low] or a real threat [if they provide pace and bounce] and the reverse holds true for Sri Lanka and India

New Zealand, South Africa, India, West Indies and Sri Lanka are all on the next rung of the favouritism ladder. South Africa is a one-dimensional side; they like to stifle the scoring with their pace-oriented attack and they don't bat so well in conditions that suit good spinners. However, they are a blue-collar bunch who are extremely competitive and in conditions that suit their pace bowlers they'll be dangerous if Graeme Smith and Herschelle Gibbs fire with the bat.

India has the batting experience plus the explosive power of Virender Sehwag and Mahendra Singh Dhoni to either post or chase down big totals. The big question mark is the ability of the bowlers to hold it together when they are attacked in the field restriction period of an innings. It was their failure to retain composure that let them down in the 2003 final and a lot of those same fielders are now four years older so the task won't be any easier this time unless Zaheer Khan and company bowl well.

Sri Lanka has a varied attack that should handle any conditions but they rely heavily on Kumar Sangakkara, Mahela Jayawardene and Sanath Jayasuriya for the bulk of their runs on bouncier pitches. The West Indies has quietly compiled a good one-day record under Brian Lara with a win and a trip to the final in the last two Champions Trophy tournaments. They have depth and power in batting and good variety in bowling and their fielding is solid so it's not surprising that they are a competitive side. Their one failing is a lack of a power bat in the middle-order and they need Dwayne Smith to confirm his potential.

New Zealand are a strong allround side with a varied and skilled attack, backed by committed fielders. The recent improvement in their top order run getting has boosted their chances enormously and a fit Jacob Oram, along with the equally dangerous Brendon McCullum, provide power with control in the middle-order. If three successive victories over Australia are a sign that self-belief has made a belated but grand entrance to their camp, then they are genuine contenders.

In a tightly bunched field I favour Australia, New Zealand, West Indies and India to scramble into the final four. If, to reach the knock out stage it's the battle I expect, then it'll be a tremendous tournament; it's just a pity it takes so long to reach the highly competitive stage.

the predictions done by Mr.Ian Chappel will be at his analysis in recently held tournaments. Yes, according to that points, the predction done by him will be ok to some what exetnt. But, to my understatding in considering past world cups and recently held macthes, because each time, a team that build their cinfidence in performing in first games in the tournament will be favoured to the semifinalyst. So, to my analysis, according to the behavior of picthes in Carriebian Islands, West indies, South Africa, Austrailia and Sri Lanka will be the semi finalyst in this year.

i think sri lanka has a better chance of reaching semis than india. u can count on india to falter during crunch games & they have a poor record in WI & they have a poor record altogether away from home. so its australia,NZ,WI & sri lanka for the final 4.

I generally agree with Ian Chappell except for New Zealand and West Indies. New Zealand recently got a thrashing from Srilanka and they wouldn't forget "Slinga" Malinga in a hurry. Sri Lanka are the only side to have won a home world cup so odds won't favour the West Indies playing at home.Pakistan have the most talented side in the world even without Akthar and on their day can take anyone out. Jayasuriya the greatest one day allrounder ever (11000 runs , only man with four scores over 150 and nearly 300 wickets) along with Afridi and Shewag can destroy any attack on their day. Kevin Peterson has a long way to go before he can be compared with these guys.Most probably India will win the world cup as they have a well balanced team. My four semi finalists would be Australia , India , Srilanka and South Africa.

Very well analysed article. The only exception is that the last four would be Australia, South Africa,New Zealand and Sri Lanka.

It will be WI SL India n SA .....for the semis....no chance for this Australian side this time.

Australia, New Zealand, West Indies and India are the four teams that shud reach the semi's.It should be India and Australia in the final, i want india to take revenge from the last world cup. But the indian camp is still confused who to open with. I would definatly open with V.Sehwag and R.Uthhappa, these two are a destructive pair when opening,then S.Ganguly should come in at no.3.whats so hard about that?? Someone tell them!!

and remember uv still got Sachin,Dravid,Yuvraj,Dhoni who can all go bezerk and blast through any bowling attack!

Fair selections.WI vs Australia in the finals.WI will win the Cup.Go the Windies.

Predicting 4 semi finalists is a tough ask for a competition, which atleast on the paper has 16 teams fighting for a spot in the finals. Having said that I would like to respect the opinion of Ian Chapell. I wish for an Indian triumph but with all the build up in the past few weeks, the super eight stage would be something to watch out for.

hey i tried commenting the last time i was here. it looks like you didnt get my message or you didnt want my comment submitted because you are too closed-minded to accept another person's viewpoint. LIKE I SAID BEFORE, DONT COUNT PAKISTAN OUT!!! THEY'RE STILL ALIVE!!!!!!!!! AND ENGLAND HAS A CHANCE AS WELL:)

I think Ian needs to Refresh his Cricketing brain when he says that """teams like South Africa will either have no chance [if they are slow and low] or a real threat [if they provide pace and bounce] and the reverse holds true for Sri Lanka and India""""
I m saying this thing because South Africa under estimated India on recent tour of India visting RSA by providing them good Pace n Bouncy wicket with swing in First test match... They had to change their tactics afterwards... I think Aussies will find it hard to Even reach Semies ( I m seriuos) they will be Handicap without Symonds n Lee... Mcgrath is too old to bowl (and his face looks as if he is of Ian's age)...

Sir Chappell, Its really an injustice to not even include a couple of lines for Pakistan.

On a more solid note, your assessment cannot be questioned. But I would like to say that both England and Pakistan make up the top 8, of which anyone can beat anybody on his day. I would love to know what chances were you giving to Pakistan in 1992. If they are same as they are now, then its time for reminding you again of the injustice of failing to mention any positive thing abt Pakistan. This is one of the rare combined and united teams Pakistan have produced. Its their spirit and spirituality (religiousness) that may just about make the difference!!

I have sent numerous emails to icc / bbc/cricinfo without any response. Can anyone comment / explain / answer following: The ICC president is elected every 2 years but president is just a puppet, the real authority is with the c.e.o, ie Malcolm Speed. How / who and for what tenure is the c.e.o appointed? if it is a permanent position then c.e.o should only be responsible for organising / financial arrangements etc and not involved in rules governing this wonderful game, that should be left to elected officials only.
Please comment!

The West Indian batsmen are most dangerous on their home turf. All their batsmen, and allrounders, are potentially big contributors, to a team score. The Sri Lankan allrounders, are not as adept batsmen. Their batting line up, is not exactly packed with specialist batsmen.
If the West Indian bowlers perform reasonably, they have more than a good chance of makeing the semi-finals. Bravo is the bowler, for the opposition, to be wary of. On slow wickets, Gayle bowls well. Bravo is usually discliplined, Gayle gets the job done.West Indies, Pakistan, and England, are the teams to watch, along with India. India are the favourites, in my opinion.