He's behind you... and, of course, Australia: Glenn McGrath, the pantomime villain © Getty Images

Dear old Glenn McGrath is at it again. “I reckon it will be 5-0,” he says of the forthcoming Ashes series. He said it last time too. Once bitten, twice … not shy at all.

Speaking at the Adelaide Oval, he also said, “This is where we’re going to win back the Ashes”. Someone gently informed him that Adelaide is the venue for the second Test, so that’s not actually possible. “Aw well, it will be 2-0,” McGrath replied, “and that’s as near as dammit.”

McGrath’s predictions are always entertaining and, when it comes to the Ashes, always wrong. Australia haven’t beaten England 5-0 since 1921. The last team to win five Tests in an Ashes series was England, who won 5-1 in 1978-79 (Australia had an excuse: several of their star players were signed to Kerry Packer). Even when England were a rabble, a few years ago, they usually took one Test off the Aussies.

“To say anything else,” McGrath explained, “would be negative. If we're going to win 2-1, or 3-2, which games are we going to lose?” Well, they could lose at Perth, where it’s pacy and bouncy, as England look like having the only three bowlers in the series who are very tall and very fast – Harmison, Flintoff and Mahmood.

They could well lose again at one of Melbourne and Sydney, where England, with their supporters flooding in for the Christmas holidays, won one Test on each of their last two Ashes tours. And there could easily be a draw at Adelaide, where the pitch is flat. So the Aussies could win in Brisbane and one of Melbourne and Sydney, and still not regain the Ashes.

McGrath is too shrewd not to realise this. His predictions, unlike his bowling, are not really about accuracy. They are part of the ritual. He is playing the pantomime villain. His words will amuse some of his team-mates and irritate others. They will fire up some of the England players. And they will give the Barmy Army something to sing at him.

	Monty Panesar will be able to use the attention of Australian crowds to his advantage © Getty Images

Australian crowds have the reputation of being the most hostile in the cricket world. And it’s widely believed that Monty Panesar, England’s new star spinner, will be a target for their vitriol with his sometimes farcical fielding. But the impact of crowds isn’t just about whether they are with you or against you.

Monty himself suggested as much when he spoke to the Sydney Morning Herald last weekend. “In general,” he said, “I look to take energy from crowds that are passionate about cricket. When you're in front of huge crowds, it's obviously a big motivation. I hope that most people in Australian cricket support the game in the right way. No one wants to see things that aren't right in the sport. In India, the crowds were big with a lot of people very passionate about the game. I hope it will be like that.”

Monty puts his finger on the matter, with characteristic accuracy, when he talks about “taking energy”. A crowd is an energy more than anything else. Players need to be able to ride that energy. When the Ashes were held in England last year, the crowds made a lot more noise than the players were used to. Some rose to it, others wilted. But they didn’t necessarily divide along national lines. Shane Warne copped as much flak from the crowd as anyone, but thrived on it. Ian Bell copped none, and floundered.

Monty will certainly get the big crowds he is hoping for. And no doubt when he lets the ball through his legs at mid-on, they will give him a hard time. But they may well warm to him the way the English crowd has, because of his wide-eyed enthusiasm and his endearingly inept celebrations. And even if they don’t, he can already see that the thing to do is not to worry about that, but to harness their energy.