first!

My guess is that the ECB has done their numbers as well, came up with the same conclusion as you and planned the 2 test series against the West Indies solely for that reason.

So, we're going to win the Ashes then?
I'm not scared of those Aussies. How can I be, I've never heard of any of them.

Hahaha!! you mesmerize me (and turn me into a laughing buddha!) every time you put your pen to paper Mr. Zaltzman!! And you have given so many statistically "significant" facts that now i earnestly hope england wins the Ashes!!
Black US Prez lucky for the english?? OMG!!
But Ashes or not.... please keep up the good work and continue to tickle our funny bones!!

mate, thats bloody hilarious!

If only I could answer my stats exam in the same manner!

This was the best article yet! It had me chuckling the whole way through, and I even read paragraph twice because it was so funny! Andy, you are a genius! Keep up the magnificent nonsense!

Andy, you're all right.
I eagerly look forward to a 4-0 England victory as, among other reasons, it would be most interesting to read what you make of it

Thats a wildly entertaining post! You're statistical observations are awesomely creative...BUT don't be too quick to dub it a metaphor or an exaggeration..ever heard of the butterfly effect? a single flap of a butterfly wing in one part of the world can cause nuclear war in another! so..lets see now..new black president implies 'change' implies good tie-ups with the UK on dealing with this recession implies strengthened UK economy implies better bank balances for cricketers implies KP and his brethren are in high spirits implies England win the ashes! There u go Mr. Zaltman!

So, that's obviously incontrovertible proof! England will win the Ashes. Damnit. And us Aussies will just have to find some way to encourage Warne out of retirement. Anyone got a spare chocolate bar?

absolutely hilarious. the aussies would be shaking in their boots after reading this. the best part was that the aussies have never beaten england while there was a black american president. way to go..

As always, hilarious.

I very nearly just got thrown out of the quiet section of my library upon discovering that James Anderson is, statistically, the greatest all-round cricketer the game has ever seen. Many thanks Mr Zaltman for making procrastination from revision so enjoyable.

My favourite part was the black president, 57 years for the Queen and Cardiff, though now it does seem to make sense because didn't the aussies lose a WC match there once? Anyway, on the strength of this statistically miraculously attentive article I am changing my original score of 5-0 for the aussies to 2-2 with one rain out. God save the Queen and Posh Spice!

What I don't understand is why the undoubtedly brilliant Mr Zaltzman has time to pen this sort of thing when his statistical expertise could be of so much benefit in the commercial sphere. This is just the sort of meticulously researched extrapolation they so dearly need.

Superb as always Mr Zaltman, i look forward to your quirky articles, they are one of the few things that genuinely make me laugh out loud. Many thanks.

The best by Andy - or should I say, to paraphrase Homer Simpson, the best 'so far'. Keep it coming!

i guess im the only one here who didnt find that funny.. or maybe im the only aussie who read it.. you know what i did find funny.. all the poms in the comments section acting cool and cocky... hahahaha it seems like they actually think they can win a single match this series.. oh well.. im sure this comment will get a lot of nice backlash, but i dont care cos i wont ever be back on this comment board, BUT my response to all of it is this: in 2 months time.. come have a look back here and see who is right... we all know who it will be..

"Jimmy Anderson could have informed Taylor and Benn in writing several months in advance exactly where and when he was going to bowl those outswinging missiles of perfection to them, and they would still seen their off stumps annihilated" - hilarious!!! Excellent post AZ...may your tribe increase.....

Unfortunately, out of all your hilarious statistical stats at the end of this great article one of them might actually be a genuine reason for us losing the ashes. "have not beaten the old enemy without a leg spinner for over 25 years" is unfortunately a stat that now stands up head & shoulders above the rest. My kingdom for Warnie to un-retire!!!

Wow....Andy-u r in good nick as usual.....nice opening...however the middle order and tail provided the real fireworks....nice statistical analysis....though you might want to add no Eng team lost when London was bombed either(ref-the 2005 bombings-and i am sorry if i have upset anyone'here by an attempt to make fun by drawing analogy to a tragic event-was never my intention to caus distress to anyone)...any wayz....how about writing on something on what it would take to get the likes of Warnie, mcgrath,gilly, Langer, Hayden, martyn, waugh to come of retirement to beef up the aus team...Adios

thats it, one more reason to keep freddie out of the ashes-james anderson is the best allrounder in test history. just one problem, after eng's win,who's gonna break the drinking binge record freddie set in 2005?

Yeah, very convincing but you overlooked our main weapon. We're digging up Don, propping him up at one end and you won't have a snowball's chance of getting him out! Unless you cheat. Again! And big Merv the selector will be there in his Hawaiian shirt should he be needed, and you all know what his intelligence can do. Yes I know, not much, but he won't need to do much to knock over a handful of Poms. And we're generally taller than youse and drink more beer, so what you could possibly base your assumptions on in the real world's absolutely beyond me!

Thom, Get a life mate!! Everyone knows the Aussies like to dish it, but have real trouble taking it!!

Great insights Andy, Jimmy can hold his head up high!!

Cheers

One of your best Andy!

I loved this line "One day, I will sit him down and explain with the use of graphs why this is not the case. And he will humour me for a couple of minutes before putting on his Delhi Daredevils shirt and asking me what a Test match is." Brilliant. Hilarious and thought provoking at the same time.

Keep em coming, Andyman. You are the best thing to happen to us cricinfolovers since,...er... cricinfo.

Thanks for continuing to prove that cricket, satire and whimsy, and perhaps most crucially of all, statistics, are a delicious combination.
The reference to your son's bald head made me think his hairstyle was much like yours.

Take a bow, Mr.Zaltzman. For a name which appears suspiciously of German origin, your humour is on par with PGW!

Great article. Love the use of the statistics. What a great laugh to start the day.

Hey Thom, you should lighten up a little. It was a satirical article! I am an auzzie, and I loved it.

Very, very funny. I'm an Oz fan as well and I think it is a cracking article. So refreshing after all the po-faced talk of the Ashes.

Awesome work, Andy.

ha ha ha remember 2006 5-nil remember the name mitchel johnson he will be giving you poms nightmares real soon

5 nil the first time 80 years is the only stat you need to mention andy.if fat freddy does not play well be right.

Mark, he already is giving us nightmares.
And Thom, for pity's sake...
If you're taking Andy seriously...

Yeah mate, Anderson is the best all-rounder in cricketing history. Atleast England have the best bowlers in the world-jimmy, Sidey, Freddie & Stuart provides a good support by taking key wickets. I'm predicting England will win 2-0 or 3-0 as I don't expect Oz to win an Ashes test with such bowlers. BTW Nice work, amazing statistics, all the statistics you provided ensure us that England is gonna win it. Keep it up!

Flintoff's (lack of) fitness is crucial

How could you write about England's Ashes chances without mentioning Fintoff's fitness; and the devastating effect it will have if Flintoff is - by some miracle - fit?

If Flintoff is fit then - obviously! - England will have to play him. And England can only play Flintoff by dropping somebody better, unbalancing the side, and destroying team cohesion.

This could be the first Ashes to be decided by lack of injuries to a key player.

this is utterly rubbish, Aus will smash Eng 5-0

Earth shattering this is. Worse is the fact Hughes has scored 3 centuries so by the law of averages he should have a horror Ashes series. Hey the WAGS are here too. Last time they came we lost 2-1 to the Saffas. Man this isn't looking good...

yo Thom ease up. He was joking.

If Australia play at their best then Australia will win, but if they don't then England may win back the Ashes.

It just cracks me up the complacency of England and its fans. Never, ever, count the Aussies out of anything. If you watched their tour of South Africa earlier this year, you'd learn this. That tour was supposed to have been the coronation of South Africa as Test kings, but what we learned is Mitchell Johnson is one of the best all-rounders in the game today and Australian cricket is alive and well thank you very much. While I don't see Australia destroying England with five wins like 2006, I still see them pulling this out 2-1 or 3-1. Other than India and South Africa, England hasn't faced a serious test since the 2006 Ashes. Twice against New Zealand and West Indies is no indication of progress.

as we all know the poms will rely on their foreign players to try and make a fist the series, cant see England coming close unless Anderson can fires with bat and ball!!

So it's official. Andy Zaltzman is England's answer to Glenn McGrath (at least in making pre-series predictions and possibly twisting his ankle on rouge cricket balls).

And btw, I totally imagine the likes of 'nht' going on about "Never, ever, count the Aussies out of anything. If you watched their tour of South Africa ... yada yada" to be one of the types who watch Lord of the Rings and comment on how unrealistic hobbits (and elves for that matter) are. Cheer up mate!

The comments on this article show that only about half of all Australians actually have a sense of humour.

Nice work Andy!

Gordon Brown out... LBW bowled Hilfenhaus :)

It is an Ashes summer in England, and the Poms have just beaten an egg (West Indies)... of course they think they'll win.
If the Aussies win the first test in Cardiff, the series will immediately be at 2-0, Lords is an automatic write-off for the poms, that is why it is not the venue for the first test.
Pommie confidence is a wonderful thing to see. It is a beautiful bubble, inflated to grand proportions in the early Summer sunlight, kept wet by the English rain, and it floats gently and high on the hopes and dreams of the hopeful dreamers that are the barmy army and its cohorts...
but reality is a prick!

The best team will win. England.