Page2
The Confectionery Stall

« Lies, damned lies, and 21st century cricket stats | | Everything points to an England win »

December 11, 2008

Posted by Andy Zaltzman on 12/11/2008

Facts + maths = truth
Could Kevin Pietersen become the dullest batsman in world cricket by his mid-thirties? © Getty Images


The Confectionery Stall is quite open about its statistics fetish, however much society at large may disapprove. Here are some statistical pointers to how England will perform in the Test series, generated with a combustible cocktail of fact and inappropriate mathematics:

  • Graeme Swann has at last been selected for his Test debut. In November, his fellow offspinner Jason Krejza entered his 12-wicket debut Test for Australia in Nagpur with a first-class average of around 50 – half as much again as Swann’s 33. Therefore, if all goes according to the form-book, Swann will take 18 wickets in the Chennai Test.

  • Kevin Pietersen hit 28 sixes in his first 14 Tests. He has cleared the advertising-cladded ropes only 16 times in the following 29 matches. If his rate of maximum-thwacking continues to decline at this rate, he will hit only four sixes in his next 44 Tests. And none thereafter. By his mid-thirties, he will be the dullest batsman in world cricket.

  • In his first 43 Tests, up to and including his 11-wicket match haul against Pakistan at Old Trafford in 2006, Steve Harmison took 174 wickets at an average of 27.74, with a best of 7-12. In his last 15 Tests since then, he has taken 42 wickets at 46.66, with a best of 4-48. If Harmison’s decline continues at this rate, in his next 15 Tests, he will take 29 wickets at 78, with a best of 1-192.

  • In series in which Paul Collingwood has scored his runs at more than 47 runs per balls, he has averaged 50. When he has scored at less than 41 per 100 in a series, he has averaged 25. Therefore, if Collingwood can raise his scoring rate to a perfectly-achievable 59 per 100, his average will rocket up to a doubly-Bradmanesque 200. Come out swinging, Paul. You cannot fight statistics like that.

  • If England want good starts to their innings, they must hypnotise Andrew Strauss before the match starts, and convince him that Zaheer Khan and Ishant Sharma are in fact Chris Martin and Kyle Mills in disguise (with Martin bowling left-handed for a bet) – because excluding four consecutive innings against New Zealand earlier this year in which Strauss scored two centuries and two half-centuries, he has averaged 26 in his last 36 Test innings since losing the captaincy before the start of the 2006-07 Ashes, with no hundreds and only five half-centuries. This strategy is dependent on England winning the toss and batting first – even under the deepest possible hypnosis, it is inconceivable that the Middlesex man could mistake Virender Sehwag for Aaron Redmond.
    Should India be targeting Monty Panesar more than any other batsman? © Getty Images

  • As a batsman, Monty Panesar has passed 1 only once in his last eight Tests, obviously burdened down by the stratospheric expectations generated when, in the space of six heady months in 2006, he swept Muralitharan for six and on-drove Stuart Clark for four (the latter a shot of such unimprovable left-handed magnificence that it seemed that England had at last, after 75 years of vain searching, unearthed its new Frank Woolley – only this 21-century version was a more dangerous bowler, as well as a batsman of bewitching grace).

    In all, Panesar has passed 10 only four times in his Test career – but in those matches, he has taken 23 wickets at an average of 24, with three five-wicket innings. In the 29 Tests when he has not excelled with the bat, Panesar’s bowling average balloons to nearly 34. Clearly, he is England’s most important wicket. India’s bowlers should be targeting Panesar more than any other batsman.

    England, for their part, should be giving Monty round-the-clock batting coaching. It must be worth the ECB’s effort and funding – let it not be forgotten that Panesar had a better batting average after his first 12 Tests than Don Bradman, Len Hutton or Viv Richards had after their first 1. (Or Graham Gooch after 2.) (Or Mike Gatting after 3.) (Or Martin Crowe after 4.) (Or Jacques Kallis after 5.) (Or Bill Edrich or Wasim Akram after 8.) (Or Marvan Atapattu after 9.) (Or Kenny Rutherford after 12.) (The list goes on.) (Probably.) (Until: Or Courtney Walsh after 132.) (Where it ends.)

    •  
    Feedback Feedback

    Comments

    Posted by: Krishna on 12/11/2008

    Dear Andy,
    What was your math score like at school? Mesme(a)ric? What about the number of security staff breathing down long-off's neck? You also did not factor in the non-availablity of a hypnotizer in the English support staff.

    Posted by: rabin on 12/11/2008

    haha !

    I'm cracked up laughing ! especially the walsh bit !

    somebody in the england team did take your advice about strauss !

    Posted by: Sam on 12/11/2008

    By that logic, Swann will cost around 540 runs, more than enough to beat this England team...

    Posted by: mujib mashal on 12/11/2008

    5000 troops have been deployed to protect the two teams, probably fifty people in total including the support staff. That is one hundred men per player. This is a dramatic increase from 13 policemen per player in Kanpur (most of whom were napping.)If the increase rate continues, some of the police men would have to wait outside the gates in the next venue because the ground does not have capacity for all 40,000 of them!!!

    Posted by: nitin on 12/11/2008

    Wow...what school were you in!

    Posted by: Mainul on 12/11/2008

    This is the best from you Andy. I think your math score was great(!!).

    Posted by: Avnish Jain on 12/11/2008

    hey, this is good one...

    Posted by: sumit on 12/11/2008

    apart from the monty maths - this post is not funny! come on andy.. you can do better!

    Posted by: abhijit on 12/11/2008

    I wanted to be a cricket statistician before I read your article. Andy,If you can spend some more time with cricket stats, you can probably prove the big bang theory !

    Posted by: Rajesh on 12/11/2008

    East or West Andy is the best
    What you write is magic.
    Graeme swann taking 18 wickets was the best statistic...lol
    Keep up the good work

    Posted by: Arvi on 12/12/2008

    "If Harmison’s decline continues at this rate, in his next 15 Tests, he will take 29 wickets at 78, with a best of 1-192."

    You mean to say England will make the opposition bat twice in every match that Harmison plays? Hard to see that happening...

    Posted by: Ross on 12/14/2008

    The Strauss one was the best. Lol about Sehwag/Redmond

    Posted by: keyur on 12/16/2008

    Strauss seemed to have seriously been hypnotised as he amassed 2 centuries. But that hypnosis must have worn off now with Sehwag's 4th innings blinder!!!

    Posted by: syed ahmed on 01/15/2009

    andy you ar simply superb.i needs your math teacher name an d no. iwant to study math in his coaching

    Posted by: vish on 01/29/2009

    Never read better stuff, andy! Really cracked me up. Im totally up for the idea of targeting Panesar all the time

      Post your comment
    Name:
    Email Address:
    Comments:
    characters left

    Andy Zaltzman was born in obscurity in 1974. He has been a sporadically-acclaimed stand-up comedian since 1999, and has appeared regularly on BBC Radio 4. He is currently one half of TimesOnline’s hit satirical podcast The Bugle, alongside John Oliver (The Daily Show with John Stewart). He also writes for The Times newspaper, and is the author of Does Anything Eat Bankers? (And 53 Other Indispensable Questions For The Credit Crunched).

    Zaltzman’s love of cricket outshone his aptitude for the game by a humiliating margin. He once scored 6 in 75 minutes in an Under-15 match, and failed to hit a six between the ages of 9 and 23. He would have been ideally suited to Tests, had not a congenital defect left him unable to play the game to anything above genuine village standard. Aged 21, when fielding at deep midwicket, he dropped the same batsman three times in fifteen minutes, and has not been selected by England before or since

    Blogs Home
    RSS FeedsRSS Feed

    Recent Posts

    Archives

    Search
    Cricinfo is a part of ESPN | © ESPN EMEA Ltd.
    • ESPN
    • Soccernet
    • Scrum